The start of an F1 revival - or a one off - for Mercedes?

After their miserable 2022, and lacklustre displays at the opening two rounds in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Mercedes had their strongest qualifying of the season in Melbourne, with George Russell and Lewis Hamilton taking second and third respectively. 

Their encouraging pace translated into Sunday’s race with Russell and Hamilton both making strong starts to pounce on Max Verstappen and move into an early 1-2 on a thrilling opening lap. 

Russell’s race was eventually curtailed by an engine failure that will give Mercedes some cause for concern. But Hamilton was able to cover off Fernando Alonso prior to the wild finish and claim second place on merit in a much-needed boost for the Brackley squad. 

What was behind Mercedes’ improvement? 

Mercedes’ sudden improvement took everyone by surprise, including themselves, considering they had not brought any performance upgrades to Melbourne. 

Team boss Toto Wolff admitted after qualifying that Mercedes’ much-improved competitiveness was unexpected, and suggested it was likely the result of a combination of factors coming together. 

Qualifying took place in cooler temperatures and while some teams were having trouble with tyre warm-up, Mercedes aced their tyre preparation. 

"The tyres play a big factor," Russell noted. "When you get them in the sweet spot, you make a big jump. I improved 0.4secs in my last run and unfortunately it is always tyres, tyres, tyres.”

Red Bull were among those struggling, which may partly explain how Mercedes were suddenly able to slash their previous one-second deficit down to a couple of tenths. 

Verstappen’s teammate, Sergio Perez, was out of the picture having suffered a disastrous Q1 elimination, further boosting the final positioning of the two Mercedes. 

In Sunday’s race, which took place in hotter conditions, Mercedes maintained their strong pace on their way to sealing their best result of the season so far.

Can Mercedes really catch Red Bull? 

Russell boldly claimed he saw “no reason” why Mercedes couldn’t have beaten Verstappen to the win in Melbourne, but in reality, Red Bull’s RB19 looked to be on another planet. 

While Mercedes’ performance against Red Bull appeared much better - with Hamilton able to keep within 10 seconds of Verstappen throughout - Red Bull’s true advantage was ultimately skewed by the multiple Safety Car and red flag interruptions. 

Despite mixing it up with Verstappen early in the race, Hamilton was powerless to prevent the Dutchman breezing past with his “insane” straightline speed and “crazy downforce”. 

It was here that Verstappen revealed the ominous pace of his Red Bull by turning a 0.5-second deficit to Hamilton into a 2-second advantage by the following lap.

Verstappen’s apparent pace-management in Melbourne led Russell to claim that Red Bull are deliberately hiding their true potential to avoid intervention from the FIA to peg back their advantage.

Nevertheless, Hamilton still believes Mercedes can reduce the gap to Red Bull over the course of the season. 

“I still feel uncomfortable in the car. I still don’t feel connected to it,” said Hamilton, who revealed ahead of the weekend he is struggling with the further-forward cockpit of the W14. 

"I'm driving as best I can with that disconnect and I'm working as hard as I can to try and create that connection. But I think it's a long project.

“But still, considering we've been down on performance, we're clearly down on straight [line] pace compared to the Red Bulls, for us to be up here fighting with Aston [Martin, third in Melbourne] is just amazing at this point in the season,” he said. 

"We just have to keep on fighting. A big, big thank you to all the people back at the factory. Let's keep pushing.

"We can close that gap. It's going to be tough but not impossible."

But Mercedes will not be getting carried away with their much-improved showing in Australia, according to Wolff. 

"We will have to think about why we were so fast here," he said. "We must not delude ourselves, but we will definitely maintain our development direction and take one step at a time forward."