How Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari switch might impact F1’s driver dominoes

Lewis Hamilton’s bombshell switch to Ferrari for F1 2025 could have huge consequences on how the rest of the driver market plays out.

The seven-time world champion’s shock announcement has blown ‘silly season’ wide open and added another layer of intrigue to what was already promising to be an exciting driver market, with more than half of the field out of contract.

Hamilton’s decision to join Ferrari leaves Mercedes needing to find a replacement in the coming months. Exactly how dramatic the domino effect will be hinges on who Mercedes pick.

If Mercedes go for Sainz

The biggest consequence of Hamilton’s decision to vacate his Mercedes seat to join Ferrari is that it has left Carlos Sainz without a drive.

Sainz is Mercedes’ most obvious candidate, given he is the only driver from the top teams to be searching for a new home for 2025.

A straightforward, direct swap involving Hamilton and Sainz would have zero impact on the rest of the grid.

However…

If Mercedes go for Alonso

Mercedes boss Toto Wolff asserted the team will not be afraid to go bold in who they select to partner George Russell.

There would be few bolder options than signing 42-year-old Fernando Alonso for a megastar-type deal to somewhat soften the blow of losing Hamilton.

Such a move would open the door for more interesting scenarios to unfold - perhaps Sainz would replace his fellow Spaniard at Aston Martin?

If Mercedes go for Verstappen

This feels like the most unlikely outcome, given Max Verstappen is tied down to Red Bull for the long-term and would surely have no interest in giving up his luxury position at the top of F1 for a risky move to Mercedes.

But imagining for one second that Red Bull were prepared to entertain what would need to be a stratospheric offer for their star driver, there would be many repercussions down the grid.

First, Red Bull would need a replacement. Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri would likely be at the top of their wish list, but less complicated alternatives could be found with Daniel Ricciardo or Alex Albon.

If Ricciardo were to be handed a full-time return, it could open up an opportunity for Red Bull reserve and junior Liam Lawson, or fellow junior Ayumu Iwasa at their sister team.

A move for Norris, Piastri, or Albon would result in McLaren or Williams seeking a replacement - with Sainz available.

If Mercedes go for Albon

Assuming Verstappen is a no-go, Albon could be an attractive option to fill the void left by Hamilton at Mercedes from 2025.

If Albon was picked as Mercedes’ ideal candidate, would Sainz end up at Williams to replace him? Sainz would likely also have interest from the soon-to-be Audi operation currently run by Sauber.

A move to Audi for Sainz could end up costing Zhou Guanyu his seat.

If Mercedes go for Ocon

Esteban Ocon was once seen as Mercedes’ long-term successor for Hamilton, and that may yet turn into reality given his contract is up at the end of the year and he still has links to the Silver Arrows..

If the opportunity were to come the Frenchman’s way, Alpine would be left frantically searching for their own replacement.

If Sainz did not fancy a return to Enstone, perhaps Alpine would look to former junior Zhou, or promote one of their current proteges such as Jack Doohan or Victor Martins.

If Mercedes go for Bottas

Surely not? Imagine if Mercedes offered Valtteri Bottas a shock return to Brackley.

Considered the perfect number two for Hamilton, Bottas might end up finding himself carrying out the same role to Russell - the man who took his Mercedes seat.

This scenario, as unlikely as it may be, would pave a clear route to Audi for Sainz.