F1 Prediction: Max Verstappen to defeat Charles Leclerc in latest duel

Leclerc claimed his second Formula 1 pole position of the year with another impressive lap to eclipse Red Bull duo Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez at Albert Park.

Leclerc’s advantage at the end of Q3 was nearly 0.3s over Verstappen but that doesn’t tell the full story.

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While Leclerc produced a stunning lap, Verstappen made a mistake on his first Q3 effort at the penultimate corner, which according to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner, would have got close to the Leclerc’s eventual pole time.

The battle at the front looks finely poised with Leclerc and Verstappen set to go head-to-head for the third time in 2022.

Advantage Max Verstappen?

The reigning F1 champion once again missed out on pole position after making a crucial mistake on his first Q3 effort.

Even without it, Leclerc’s eventual pole time looked to be untouchable as the Ferrari driver continues to prove his title credentials. 

Verstappen has struggled slightly in qualifying this season with the handling of the Red Bull RB18 not to his liking, as he admitted after qualifying at Albert Park.

“I would have hoped to start first but we have to accept where we finished,” Verstappen said. “[The car] has been a bit tricky for me, all over the place, and I’ve never found a stable grip at the front or rear.

“But that’s been the case for the whole year, I’ve never really found a balance where I can fully attack all the corners, especially in qualifying. It’s been tough, We have a lot more potential in the car than we are showing and that’s a shame.”

Verstappen was more downbeat than usual after qualifying but the Dutchman is still in a good place to take his second victory of the year. 

Red Bull has once again opted for a low downforce philosophy with Verstappen and Perez lightning quick on the straights, giving it a crucial advantage in wheel-to-wheel combat.

The Milton-Keynes outfit was once again impressive in the race runs in FP2, potentially putting the advantage in Red Bull’s corner.

Another point to consider is Red Bull will have two cars in the mix, as opposed to Ferrari with just one after Carlos Sainz could only qualify ninth.

This will give Red Bull crucial strategic options to overcome Leclerc on race day, should either Verstappen or Perez be unable to get ahead on the opening lap.

The fight at the front will likely come down to the final few laps once again.

Will McLaren hold onto ‘best of the rest?'

After a torrid start to the season, McLaren enjoyed its best qualifying performance of the season with Lando Norris securing fourth ahead of Mercedes duo Lewis Hamilton and George Russell.

Teammate Daniel Ricciardo made it two McLarens in the top seven as it looks to refind its form from the last two years.

Despite not making too many changes to its car, the high-speed nature of Albert Park appears to be suiting McLaren’s 2022 package, with its deficiencies coming in low-speed corners.

Norris continues to be one of F1’s most impressive performers but after qualifying, he conceded that keeping Mercedes behind will be tricky given that it usually has a race pace advantage. 

“I look forward to it,” Norris said. “I think we can have some good racing and hopefully we can race them more often. Normally the race pace of the Mercs is also very strong and tends to be a bit stronger than ours. 

“We will see what we can do but we have a good pace, better pace than we expected today so we will see what we can do tomorrow.”

Besides the two Mercedes drivers, Norris will have to contend with Sainz and a fast-charging Fernando Alonso.

Watch out for Fernando Alonso

Alonso was producing some of the best laps of his recent F1 career up until his unfortunate hydraulic issue at the start of Q3.

Alonso went quickest in the middle sector on his first run in Q3 - 0.2s faster than Leclerc’s provisional pole time - and was on course to challenge for pole position.

While it’s likely Alonso would have missed out on pole, a top five starting position was on the cards with Alpine’s clear progress since pre-season testing shown by the Spaniard’s form at Albert Park. 

After the time of writing, the two-time champion is set to start from 10th on the grid but with a fast Alpine package behind him, and Alonso often saving his best for race day, watch out for him on race day.

Crash.net’s prediction

Red Bull’s superior race pace advantage combined with having two cars in the fight against one should give Verstappen the advantage over Leclerc.

We’re tipping Verstappen to take his first-ever victory at Albert Park with Leclerc finishing in the top two for the third consecutive race.

Perez will complete the top three, scoring his first career podium in Melbourne.

Third: Sergio Perez (Red Bull)

Second: Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

Winner: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)