Mercedes tipped to win a race despite “ceiling they will hit”

Mercedes will win an F1 grand prix this season, it has been predicted, despite the “ceiling” they will hit.

The improvement of the struggling team has been eye-opening, with consecutive podium finishes for George Russell then Lewis Hamilton.

This weekend’s F1 Austrian Grand Prix, before Silverstone a week later, offers more opportunity to close the gap to the front.

“Another third and fourth following Canada,” Sky Sports’ Karun Chandhok said after the F1 Spanish Grand Prix last weekend.

“It was a solid race. They are clearly still behind McLaren, a tenth-and-a-half per lap.

“It’s closer than they were at the start of the season. They are on a journey.

“I’ll be interested if - we’ve got two more races coming thick and fast - if they can optimise the set-up to unlock more speed.

“They are much closer than they were. They’re not quite there with Lando and Max.”

Damon Hill assessed Mercedes’ improvement: “It’s like their feet haven’t touched the ground. They have had nothing to grab onto, no foundation.

“Now they’ve got this front wing. They’ve got confidence again in what they’re doing.

“‘If that is right, we can do this, this and this…’

“They are definitely encroaching.”

Wind tunnel time to limit Mercedes?

However, Hill pointed out a possible future problem.

“Don’t forget they finished second in the constructors’ last year so they’ve got a ceiling that they’ll hit earlier than McLaren,” he said.

Finishing higher in the constructors’ standings last season means Mercedes will receive less wind tunnel time this year than rivals McLaren and Ferrari.

However, optimism surrounds Toto Wolff’s team.

“The tides are shifting,” Danica Patrick said.

“I think Mercedes had a pretty good execution of a weekend. George could have been third if he’d taken softs, the hards did not look good at all.

“They have a lot to be happy about.

“Toto is feeling the weight off, charged up by the finish, like ‘we will go and get more!’”

Hill added: “Until recently, we were thinking Adrian Newey would go to Ferrari, Lewis is going to Ferrari, and Ferrari were on the up.

“Suddenly this doubt has been thrown in about Adrian going to Ferrari. It doesn’t look such an appealing prospect.”

But Karun Chandhok warned that Ferrari will not let Mercedes consistently outperform them without a battle.

“Let’s keep perspective,” Chandhok said. “Leclerc, with another lap, would have passed George. He wasn’t far behind Lewis and his race was compromised in the first stint.”

Will Hamilton be having second-thoughts about joining Ferrari in 2025 if Mercedes continue to finish ahead of them?

Chandhok answered: “Does Lewis regret it? They were three hundredths different in qualifying and they were there in the race.

“I think Mercedes can win a race this year.”

Hill insisted: “[Hamilton] thinks ‘game on’ again. He can rub wheels with Lando and Max.”

Mercedes have not won an F1 grand prix since late-2022 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, via Russell.

Hamilton has not been victorious since 2021.