Where are Marc Marquez’s best chances of a first Ducati MotoGP win in 2024?

Marc Marquez’s first season on the Ducati MotoGP bike with the Gresini team has been a welcome return to form for the six-time premier class world champion.

Turning his back on the final year of a factory Honda contract to take up a year-old Ducati for 2024 was one of the biggest risk of his MotoGP career to date, but one that has ultimately paid off.

Scoring nine podiums across sprints and grands prix in the first half of the campaign, Marquez also secured himself a factory Ducati contract for 2025.

It’s a marked departure from the form he showed on the difficult Honda last season, with Marquez managing just four rostrums in total.

But his wait for a first win since the 2021 Emilia Romagna GP goes on. At the time of writing, 1020 days have passed since he took his 59th MotoGP victory.

He’s come close at certain points in 2024, most notably when he was just 0.372s behind Francesco Bagnaia at the Spanish GP when the pair battled hard for victory.

Stronghold venues in COTA and Sachsenring didn’t yield the expected return to the top of the rostrum. At Austin, he crashed due to a brake issue having just taken the lead, while a tough weekend in Germany put him out of victory contention - though he still finished second from 13th.

“We were very close in these first 10 races to win, or to have my first victory with the Ducati,” he told motogp.com after the British Grand Prix.

“But in the two good circuits for me, Austin and Sachsenring, they were very difficult weekends, especially in Austin when I was leading with that brake problem.

“But let’s see. Still 10 races remain. It’s true that we have three riders faster than us, which are the three riders riding the 2024 Ducati. They are super-fast and also riding in a good way.

“So, we will try to do our best and keep enjoying. This is the most important thing. And try to have that good feeling on the bike.”

Marquez did concede at Silverstone that the GP24 has noticeably taken a step forward from the GP23 he is riding at certain tracks: “At the moment, on average, we are four-five seconds slower in the race [compared to the GP24]. So we need to improve more than two or three tenths per lap if we want to fight with them.

“That is a lot. Sounds not so bad, but it is a lot! [Austria] will be difficult. But our target is that top four, five and - if we can - fight for the podium as we did in another races.”

The upcoming Austrian GP - where Marquez has never breached the top of the podium - is likely to see a similar picture to the British GP, with the GP24s stealing a march on the GP23. That isn’t to say Marquez can’t win at the Red Bull Ring, but the following round in Aragon presents a much better opportunity.

Five-times a winner at Aragon, the anticlockwise layout plays into Marquez’s riding style. He was second there on the Honda in 2021 while his right arm was still recovering - and over 30 degrees out of rotation - after breaking it at Jerez the year before, and came close to winning in a battle with Bagnaia.

Marquez won four on the spin at Aragon between 2016 and 2019, the latter being his most dominant with a winning margin of 4.8s to Andrea Dovizioso.

Back-to-back Misano rounds following Aragon should also play into his hands. The San Marino GP last year represented one of his better showings on the Honda with a seventh-place finish. The Ducati is always competitive at Misano, but the key factor for Marquez will be the fact that - for the first time since Qatar this season - he’ll start a race weekend not facing such a task in setting up his GP23.

Finishing fourth on his Ducati debut in Qatar in fourth having had two days of testing at the track before the round, logic dictates that the Emilia Romagna GP should present him with his best shot at victory since his narrow defeat in the Spanish GP.

Indonesia hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for him, having been forced to withdraw in 2022 due to concussion, and crashing out of last year’s contest. But Japan, Australia and Thailand - while perhaps favouring the GP24s slightly more - have all been strong venues for Marquez during his title-winning years and even recently when times were tough.

Malaysia should follow a similar pattern to the Emilia Romagna GP, given he has knowledge of Sepang on the GP23. But, his understanding of the bike and its set-up have changed significantly since then. That is true of Valencia also, where he first rode the bike last November, but its anticlockwise layout plays better to his strengths than Sepang.