Did Ducati commit too soon to their latest 2025 star?

It’s been a great week for fans of 1990s pop culture. First Oasis announced they were getting back together for a run of shows in 2025. And then on Wednesday morning, Gresini Racing announced Fermin Aldeguer’s MotoGP appointment using a mock of Nirvana’s Nevermind album artwork.

Sickeningly ironically, Aldeguer was born 10 years after Definitely Maybe was released and 13 years after Nirvana’s career-definer. Thus, Gresini’s social graphic will probably be something of a head-scratcher for the 19-year-old Spaniard.

Never mind. Aldeguer’s move to Gresini has been a bit of an open secret for the last few weeks as Ducati’s stable for 2025 completes itself. But the circumstances Aldeguer’s future finds itself in is quite different from when reports first emerged that Ducati had signed him to a two-year factory deal for 2024.

Back then it was assumed - and likely expected by Ducati management - that Aldeguer would end up at Pramac aboard a GP25. Marc Marquez turning his nose up at a Pramac promotion, which triggered some supersonic shifts in the rider market earlier this summer, forced a bit of a rethink.

Ducati has since gone on record saying they plan to field only three factory bikes in 2025 for Francesco Bagnaia, Marquez, and Fabio Di Giannantonio at VR46, taking pressure off young riders stepping up.

The GP24 Aldeguer will inherit is the best package in MotoGP right now and being able to focus on simply riding the thing without needing to worry much about development will be a big boost.

But much like his bike and team circumstances have changed, so has Aldeguer’s overall standing among the paddock’s hot prospects.

Showing flashes of speed in a part campaign in 2022 on a Boscoscuro chassis in Moto2, Aldeguer did the same across a full-time season in 2023. So much so that the hype around him was already sizable.

In 2023 he won five times, including the final four rounds, to launch himself into third in the standings. And in early 2024, he had put pen to paper on a Ducati factory MotoGP deal for the following year.

In 2024, however, Aldeguer’s season is proving to be an example of why overeagerness to sign promising young talents is becoming a problem for MotoGP manufacturers. Currently fifth in the standings after the Austrian Grand Prix, Aldeguer is 50 points off championship leader Sergio Garcia.

He’s won twice, which is no more than anyone else at this stage of the title race, but silly errors have seen at least two more victories go begging. Repeatedly exceeding track limits in Barcelona netted him a long lap penalty, and when he served it he crashed on his way into the loop on the exit of Turn 1. A similar offence in Assen threw away another win.

Since the summer break, Aldeguer struggled to 12th at the British GP and was totally anonymous in Austria.

While he has admitted struggles in adapting to the Pirelli rubber this year, it’s an excuse he can’t really hide behind now as everyone is in the same boat.

Aldeguer steps up when a rider like Sergio Garcia, current Moto2 standings leader and riding the same Boscoscuro chassis as his fellow Spaniard, must remain in the intermediate class for at least another season.

But he impressed at the right time, Ducati’s decision based solely on what it saw in 2023. And you can’t fault it for that.

Aldeguer a cost-effective risk with an upside?

“I think that Fermin is one of the fastest riders of the new era,” Bagnaia said earlier this season. “I think last year he did amazing things in the last part of the season.

“There was in a race last year where he impressed me a lot, which was in qualifying in Phillip Island, where he did a lap time that two, three years ago in MotoGP wasn’t bad – it was like second, third row. So, it was incredible.

“And I think that if him and his entourage can keep calm and just try to do everything step by step, he can do a really good job without any pressure. He has the potential to be strong.”

Bagnaia’s point on pressure is pertinent because Aldeguer is stepping into a situation where, in theory, he will not be immediately under the gun.

A two-year deal gives him job security and the Gresini surroundings have been good for young riders perhaps rushed into MotoGP a little early. Di Giannantonio is a fantastic example for both Aldeguer and Ducati to follow.

Di Giannantonio stepped up to MotoGP with Gresini in 2022 needing more time in Moto2 and struggled a lot. A switch of crew chief to Frankie Carchedi - who won the MotoGP title with Joan Mir in 2020 and now works with Marc Marquez - proved transformative for Di Giannantonio. Though it wasn’t until the latter half of the 2024 campaign that we saw the results of this.

A stunning run in the final races, which included a first win in Qatar, saved his career as VR46 offered him a seat. And now he’s done enough in 2024 to secure one of three factory Ducatis for 2025 and a new two-year deal with VR46.

Aldeguer will likely work with Carchedi at Gresini, which would be a smart move in developing the Spaniard. And the fact he steps up to MotoGP arguably as less deserving than he was when he signed the deal earlier this year, it’s in Ducati’s best interest to support him as much as possible so it doesn’t look like it was too hasty. 

Though, the fact his contract is rumoured to be worth around €300,000 per year makes him a fairly cheap risk with the potential for a huge reward.

That might be a cynical outlook, but that’s unfortunately the situation Aldeguer has created for himself by simply not being as good as he should be in Moto2 this season so far. The rider that Aldeguer was in 2023, however, is still in there. While 2024 doesn’t help his case, you don’t win five grands prix and four in a row by mere fluke.

And he won’t be the first rookie in recent times to step up off the back of mixed results. Fabio Quartararo’s appointment to Petronas SRT for 2019 raised a lot of eyebrows given his lacklustre junior career.

But that team saw the rider that was so dominant in his pre-GP days, to the point he was being hailed as the next Marc Marquez, still existed and just needed coaxing out of him.

The fact both step up having raced with the Speed Up team is merely coincidental symmetry.

But the point stands that Ducati will be confident it can do the same with Aldeguer, and it has a fresh example of its own in Di Giannantonio that shows patience and the right support breeds big rewards.