No doubts about Marc Marquez title credentials after Misano glory

There is something almost written in the stars when it comes to riders winning for the first time with Ducati. Jorge Lorenzo’s first triumph on the Desmosedici in 2018 at the Italian GP was followed immediately by a second next time out in Barcelona.

Jack Miller’s first wins with Ducati were back-to-back, when he won at Jerez and then two weeks later at Le Mans. And reigning world champion Francesco Bagnaia’s first wins came at Aragon and then Misano just a week later in 2021.

Ironically, his future team-mate has followed the same path. After dominating last week at the Aragon GP to end a 1043-day wait for another MotoGP victory, Marc Marquez only went seven without that winning feeling as he triumphed in a chaotic San Marino GP on Sunday.

Misano was the scene of Marquez’s last win prior to Aragon, at the Emilia Romagna GP of 2021 when he was still with Honda. Reasonably, the expectation was that he would be a factor in the lead battle coming into last weekend’s first Misano round of 2024. Indeed, in Friday practice - while feeling he lacked a little to Bagnaia and Jorge Martin - he was in the hunt.

Crucially, he’d started the weekend with the same feeling he had at the Red Bull Ring last month. That was his main aim for Misano. As far as adding to his win tally, “the main target” for this year had already been achieved in Aragon and consistency was what he was after now.

However, any hopes of battling for the podium looked gone as he bounced through the Turn 15 gravel trap in the latter stages of Q2 on Saturday. This left him ninth on the grid and difficulties in overtaking around Misano on modern machines meant fifth was the best he could manage in the sprint. 

And it was a daring move, as he lined up Tech3’s Pedro Acosta through the fast Curvone at Turn 12 into Turn 13 having been sucked into the pass by the KTM’s turbulent air.

That was a problem Bagnaia found chasing Martin in Saturday’s sprint. Having fluffed his launch, Bagnaia could do nothing to overhaul Martin again despite being on par with pace. His bike moved around too much in the Pramac-run GP24’s wake and he overheated his front tyre.

Under normal circumstances, Marquez was in for more of the same in the grand prix. But continual spots of rain on the build-up to the main race hinted at the drama to come.

“We were super penalised on those first laps, but when it started to drop some water on the screen and some water on the race track, that’s when I decided to attack,” Marquez said after the race.

After six laps of 27, Marquez was sixth and his pace was at 1m33.741s. That was over a second off Bagnaia’s best at the front of the pack and the gap between them was 5.333s. Then the rain came and Marquez’s path to victory emerged.

At the end of lap seven, Marquez was fifth courtesy of Jorge Martin’s pit blunder. But the gap to Bagnaia had shrunk to 2.026s as the factory Ducati rider approach the conditions cautiously - a matter of self-preservation that was kicked into overdrive when he saw Martin pit for his wet bike.

Marquez posted a 1m39.953s while Bagnaia’s pace had dropped to 1m43.260s. Marquez wasn’t the fastest of that lead group, but the ability to feel where the limits are in low-grip conditions he demonstrated so crushingly at Aragon would become very evident over lap eight.

Into Turn 1, Marquez dispensed of Jack Miller for fourth. At Turn 8, Enea Bastianini succumbed to Marquez’s advances for third. Marquez snatched second from Brad Binder at Turn 14 and through the left-hander of Turn 15 he carved underneath Bagnaia as if the Italian was on a Moto2 bike to take the lead.

Starting that tour over two seconds back, he ended it 0.323s in the lead. Pace-wise, Marquez posted a 1m37.504s despite all of his overtaking while Bagnaia clocked a 1m39.853s.

Marquez's wet weather genius

In conditions like this, Marquez has demonstrated time and time again how much better at reading the race he is than anyone else. But on this occasion, he leaned on “the local guy” on whether or not the track was wet enough to warrant swapping machine. Both Bagnaia and Bastianini later revealed that they could smell the track wasn’t ready.

At this stage of the race, the rain disappeared and pace returned to normal. And for much of the rest of the grand prix, the lap times between Marquez and Bagnaia were quite similar. But the next important phase of the race would come on lap 20.

Marquez fired in the fastest lap of the race with a 1m31.564s to move 0.874s clear of Bagnaia. The gap between the pair would only grow from this point on. Next time around, a 1m31.578s put Marquez 1.265s clear. The damage was now done. Marquez won the race by 3.102s.

“In one lap I passed five riders and I was able to lead the race. From that point it was ‘ok, now I’m leading’,” he explained. 

“But for me the best surprise was the second part of the race, when I did the fastest lap of the race, I did a very good race. I was flowing. I was losing where I was losing in the practice and gaining where I was gaining in the practice. So, the feeling was super-good.”

Decked out in the Gresini team’s retro throwback livery to late founder Fausto, Marquez completed an emotional week for himself and the squad. 

It was almost too perfect a result, with the Spaniard noting afterwards: “Today, I want to say thanks to Fausto because I think he dropped some water from the sky…’

Heavenly intervention or otherwise, it’s hard not to look at his San Marino GP win as a full circle moment for Marquez. It was at Misano in 2021 that he celebrated what would be his last victory for three years. It was at Misano last year where rumours of a Gresini move first emerged. 

And it was at the post-race test that same weekend where it really seemed like Honda’s lack of progress with its 2024 bike made the decision on his future for him.

Marquez is now 53 points off championship leader Martin, having started the San Marino round 70 back. There are 259 points up for grabs still, with 37 available per weekend. And the next grand prix is the Emilia Romagna GP at Misano.

In that respect, everything is lining up nicely for Marquez to continue eating into the championship lead. But is he genuinely a contender?

Before his Q2 crash he had pace to be fighting for the podium. The pace was there from the off and the feeling he had on the bike was the one he was looking for. Fully dialled into the Misano circuit, that form should continue at the Emilia Romagna GP.

Then there is his competition. Martin made an inexplicable gamble based on nothing more than being spooked by the conditions. He wasn’t the only one, though everyone else who pitted had nothing to lose. Martin was guilty at several stages late last season of critical errors that irreparably harmed his title charge. 

Bagnaia was actively cautious in the San Marino GP having taken a bit of a beating in the sprint and at the previous Aragon round. Mistakes now for both Bagnaia and Martin will be more costly than for Marquez, as the expectation is on his GP24-mounted counterparts to win the championship.

And then there’s the phycological aspect for Bagnaia. The more Marquez wins and chips his way into championship contention, the tougher it gets for Bagnaia because that is the reality he will face on equal machinery within the factory Ducati stable next year. Publicly he may have his mind fully on this year, but internally this will weight on him.

Marquez, arguably, is in the best position possible to fight for the championship in 2024 because he has nothing to lose. Bagnaia and Martin do. For one, going into next year as top dog will be important when a force as disruptive as Marquez steps into your house. 

And for the other, a change of machinery to an Aprilia team chasing its tale over a mystifyingly bad bike right now is showing an uncomfortable truth that this year could well be his best chance for a while at becoming champion.

That all or nothing mentality was what won Marquez the San Marino GP and it’s what makes him a genuine championship threat now…