China tipped to “play to Ferrari’s strengths” and close gap to Red Bull

F1 strategy guru Bernie Collins believes the Shanghai International Circuit will play into the strengths of Ferrari. 

F1 returns to China for the first time since 2019 with its absence mainly due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Red Bull have dominated the start of the 2024 F1 season, winning three of the opening four races.

Ferrari took the victory in Australia, making the most of Max Verstappen’s rare DNF.

Looking ahead to this weekend’s Chinese Grand Prix, Collins - who was Aston Martin’s strategist previously - thinks that Ferrari will be able to close the gap to Red Bull while pulling clear of McLaren due to the track layout.

“I think it will play to Ferrari's strengths,” she said. “There's a chance that Ferrari will have closed the gap a little bit to Red Bull and maybe taken a little step away from McLaren.”

Examining Mercedes’ chances, she added: “Previous to Japan, Mercedes were really unhappy with the car and there was a lot of discussion that their simulation wasn't working correctly. So how they're assimilating the car reacts to certain changes, to certain environments.

“That's not great if you're going into a new race or if you're going into a race with a lot of unknowns. If you are struggling to simulate a race that you've been to four times in the last four years, then it's not great for one that you've not been to either, unless two wrongs somehow make a right and you ace the setup.”

Ferrari haven’t won the Chinese GP since 2013, with Mercedes remaining beaten in Shanghai between 2014 and 2019.

With just one practice session ahead of the sprint shootout on Friday, Collins predicts this weekend to be a “big challenge” for all of the teams.

“The drivers are not going to be used to it,” she added. “Now that step's going to affect everything from strategy, car setup, simulations that the drivers have done in advance, which springs, dampers, all the things that you put in the car before it gets to the track, or you're thinking about putting it in the car before it gets to the track.

“The track is in an unknown condition. We're getting there and we just don't know. That's going to be a big, big challenge for the teams. On a normal weekend, that would be a challenge for teams. On a sprint weekend, it is going to be a big challenge for drivers and teams.”