Five problems to solve as Pramac expected to leave Ducati

Pramac will reportedly leave Ducati and go to Yamaha, according to Sky Italia, a decision with multiple knock-on effects.

Sky Italia report that Pramac will formalise their decision soon.

Other major decisions within the MotoGP paddock must wait…

Who will get 2025 Ducati factory bikes?

If Pramac confirm their exit and decide to ride Yamahas next year, two factory-spec Ducatis are up for grabs.

Ducati will be left with two other satellite teams - VR46 and Gresini.

It is Valentino Rossi’s team who are expected to benefit, if Pramac quit, by inherited the factory machinery.

VR46 would upgrade from year-old bikes to latest-spec bikes, a significant improvement in their status within Ducati.

Will Ducati lose a competitive advantage?

The ‘Ducati Cup’ - as modern MotoGP has been jokingly labelled - is largely because its dominant manufacturer has more bikes on the grid than anybody else.

Ducati insist that the playing field is even and they have been able to offer teams the best terms, allowing them to grow their presence to eight bikes.

This coincided with Pecco Bagnaia’s first championship in 2022, ending a 15-year winless run for Ducati.

The manufacturer - and the individual riders - benefit from the multitude of identical, or very similar, bikes through the use of data.

This season for example, Marc Marquez’s adaptation to the year-old Ducati from a Honda is aided by his ability to check his progress against seven other riders (three other riders on a GP23).

With two bikes less, if Pramac quit, Ducati will find themselves with a total of six. No longer double the quantity of riders and bikes as KTM and Aprilia.

Aprilia’s ascension to grand prix and sprint victories this season - plus their exciting rider duo of Jorge Martin and Marco Bezzecchi next year - makes them an obvious threat to fight at the front more frequently.

And if Ducati are stripped of a key advantage through the sheer quantity of data that they can collect, fear might creep in that they could be caught more often.

Can Yamaha fast track development?

Yamaha’s problems since Fabio Quartararo won the 2021 MotoGP title are not limited to their lack of bikes on the grid.

Since last year, they have fielded just two riders.

But undoubtedly the lack of data that Quartararo and his teammate (last year Franco Morbidelli, now Alex Rins) have been able to draw conclusions from has not helped their development.

It has been striking to see a goliath manufacturer in MotoGP with only a pair of bikes compared to the eight Ducatis.

If Pramac join Yamaha then it will represent a major next step in the rebuild of the Japanese brand.

A bonus two bikes - and sets of data - will allow them to fast track the progress of the M1. Factoring in the concessions rule, Yamaha will be optimistic.

It might not mean an overnight return to the front, but it will mean that everything is in place for Yamaha to slowly restore themselves to past glories.

Good or bad news for out-of-work riders?

Pramac switching from Ducati to Yamaha will have an obvious knock-on effect with the 2025 MotoGP rider line-up.

Most obviously, it will impact Franco Morbidelli, the current Pramac rider whose contract will expire this year.

Only last season he was dumped by Yamaha who likely will not bring him back.

In theory, Morbidelli could become a victim if Pramac move to Yamaha, with no obvious landing spot.

Except the vacant VR46 seat will surely be calling his name.

Reunited with mentor Valentino Rossi, who is seeking a replacement for Marco Bezzecchi, the stars could align perfectly for Morbidelli.

It may also mean he can remain on a factory-spec Ducati, as he is this year.

The man in the middle of Pramac’s big decision could end up becoming the biggest beneficiary.

What happens to Fermin Aldeguer?

When Ducati announced they had signed the teenager from Moto2 to make his MotoGP debut in 2025, they strangely did not confirm which team he would be allocated to.

That’s because Pramac’s future was uncertain.

Aldeguer’s first words upon signing his contract was that he expected to move into the Pramac team in 2025.

But if they quit as they are now tipped to do, Ducati must find space for Aldeguer elsewhere.

Their official line-up is decided (Pecco Bagnaia and Marc Marquez) so Aldeguer must be moved into the VR46 or Gresini garage.

In turn, that decision also impacts whether he will ride a GP25 or a GP24.

Ducati must also consider what to do with Aldeguer in 2026.

Aldeguer’s manager has bullishly told Mundo Deportivo that they have two years of guaranteed contract, followed by the option of two more.

“The second year he will take the GP26 no matter what,” Aldeguer’s manager insisted.

Without Pramac, and with Aldeguer’s contract to honour, Ducati’s options tighten.