The F1 silly season rumours which could shake-up the grid

Mercedes

The level of the driver market drama we see for 2024 will largely be dictated by Lewis Hamilton, who is the biggest-name ‘free agent’ on the grid. 

Hamilton potentially leaving Mercedes - and F1 altogether - would send shockwaves throughout the sport and create a domino effect that would throw the driver market into chaos. But that is not a likely scenario. 

Although the seven-time world champion’s current deal expires at the end of the 2023 season, both driver and team have repeatedly reiterated their desire to continue their partnership. 

Hamilton has been in negotiations with Mercedes boss Toto Wolff for several months and an agreement is imminent. That is despite rumours of a sensational switch to Ferrari - speculation that was quickly quashed by both sides.

Wolff recently said Hamilton’s contract extension was “emotionally” done and just needed signing off.

Both Hamilton and Mercedes have stressed there is no rush for the extension - mooted to be two years - to be finalised. It is considered a formality by both parties and official confirmation will simply be a matter of time. 

Charles Leclerc or Lando Norris are mooted as dream replacements should the unthinkable happen, and Hamilton leaves.

George Russell is tied to Mercedes until the end of 2025 after the Silver Arrows reportedly took up an option to add an extra year to the Briton’s contract. 

Red Bull

Max Verstappen is sitting on the longest contract in F1 today, until the end of 2028, on mega-money. And why would he want to drive any other car, anyway?

The interest surrounds his teammate Sergio Perez who has a contract for next season but will not feel particularly secure.

The notoriously ruthless Helmut Marko said this week: “There is no reason to think about measures affecting Perez. He still has a contract with Red Bull for 2024.”

But how many previous Red Bull drivers heard the same? Standards are high at the constructors’ champions and Perez will be feeling the heat to keep his seat.

Daniel Ricciardo, inserted into Red Bull’s sister team AlphaTauri by Marko, has made it clear he aspires to the car alongside Verstappen.

Watch this space.

Ferrari

Leclerc is routinely linked to Mercedes but more recently was rumoured to be signing a new Ferrari contract that will tie him down until the end of 2026, with the option for three more years.

That report claims the deal is worth £160m and would be the second-longest behind Verstappen’s.

Carlos Sainz is contracted for next season but has been linked with penning a pre-agreement to join the Sauber-run team in 2025, ahead of Audi’s takeover the following year.

Aston Martin

Fernando Alonso, the oldest driver on the grid at 42, is contracted for one more season at Aston Martin who shot into the podium positions at the start of the year before falling off more recently.

His choices about when and where to move are infamous - and have not always produced results - but Aston Martin will expect him to stay for next year.

But Lance Stroll? In theory his seat is guaranteed because his dad, Lawrence Stroll, is the billionaire who owns the team.

“I just have a little feeling that in about a year and a half’s time, Lance Stroll will race his last race in Formula 1 and go off and do something else”, Sky’s David Croft speculated.

“I just think he’s losing his mojo. I don’t think Formula 1 was the sport he wanted to go into when he was younger.”

Alpine

Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly are tied down for another season at least and nobody expects them to be anywhere else in 2024.

McLaren

Norris has a contract for another two-and-a-half years but is constantly rumoured to be heading elsewhere, often to Mercedes or Red Bull.

Amid McLaren’s current upturn in form he has admitted: “In the back of my mind, there’s that impatient game of, ‘do I stick it out for another few years, or is it time to look at something different?’”

Zak Brown even addressed his star driver potentially looking for an escape route, claiming McLaren must continue giving him a competitive car to have any chance of keeping him.

“I think as long as we keep doing that, then he'll stick around,” Brown said.

Oscar Piastri has impressed in his rookie year and is tied to McLaren for 2024.

Alpha Tauri

Ricciardo’s aim of returning to the F1 grid was unexpectedly fast-tracked after Red Bull reminded the paddock of their ruthlessness by axing the underperforming Nyck de Vries from sister team AlphaTauri just 10 races into his rookie campaign. 

The Australian has been parachuted in alongside Yuki Tsunoda and is determined to use the opportunity to rebuild his reputation and stock as he targets a full-time Red Bull drive in the future. 

A full season at the soon-to-be rebranded AlphaTauri next year seems like Ricciardo’s best bet if he wants to position himself for a return to the Red Bull cockpit on a full-time basis. 

Yuki Tsunoda will be hopeful of earning a contract extension with AlphaTauri considering he has been a rare bright spark in an otherwise challenging season for the Faenza-based outfit. 

The Japanese driver has continued his progress and stepped up as team leader in Gasly’s absence following his move to Alpine. Tsunoda has scored all of AlphaTauri’s points so far with a trio of 10th-place finishes and dominated De Vries prior to the Dutchman’s sacking. 

In Ricciardo, he now faces a tougher benchmark and what promises to be his sternest test yet. It will also give Red Bull a chance to properly evaluate Tsunoda’s mettle, with the 23-year-old holding his own aspirations of a future seat at the parent team. 

If Tsunoda can handle the additional pressure and continue to perform well, a new deal will surely follow. 

Alfa Romeo

After a so-so rookie season, Zhou Guanyu has vindicated Alfa Romeo’s decision to keep the faith in him with some consistent and solid performances during the first half of his sophomore F1 campaign. 

Just one point and one place behind teammate Valtteri Bottas in the championship, Zhou has held his own against his more experienced stablemate in uncompetitive machinery and will feel a contract renewal is a deserving reward.

The Chinese driver hopes to make progress on a new deal over the August break. With the Sauber-run team soon to be taken over by Audi ahead of their entry in 2026, it remains to be seen how much of an influence the German manufacturer will have on Zhou’s future. 

But with Alfa Romeo team boss Alessandro Alumni Bravi already hinting at an unchanged line-up for next season, it looks as though Zhou and Valtteri Bottas’s seats are safe for 2024, at least. 

Haas

Since impressing on his full-time F1 return, Nico Hulkenberg has been subject to some wild rumours linking him to Aston Martin, and even Red Bull, though Haas have no plans to change their driver-line-up for 2024. 

Haas regard Hulkenberg and Kevin Magnussen as a solid pairing who provide some much-needed experience and stability after the team’s all-rookie line-up of Nikita Mazepin and Mick Schumacher did not work out as planned. 

Haas team principal Guenther Steiner indicated that the American outfit are satisfied with their current duo in Canada. 

"Driver market-wise, I think at the moment we are pretty happy with what we have got," Steiner said.

"Obviously we want to announce our drivers as soon as possible so we don't have to hang around like last year, a long time.” 

Magnussen does not hold a contract for 2024, so his boss’ words may be of little comfort until a new deal is struck. 

Williams

Despite being just one of three drivers yet to score points this season, and looking a bit shaky at times, Logan Sargeant is an improvement on the man he replaced, Nicholas Latifi. 

However, he does not have a guaranteed contract for next year.

A change for 2024 does not look on the cards at this stage and nor would it make much sense. After Williams were so willing to take a chance on their young American driver, it would seem unnecessarily harsh to boot him out after just one year. 

Crucially, Sargeant has new Williams team principal James Vowles’ backing. Volwes admitted that Sargeant has already proved him wrong for snubbing the 22-year-old in the past when he was at Mercedes. 

Alex Albon, Williams’ main man, was linked to a huge move to Ferrari by the Italian media. A sure-fire sign that he is impressing up and down the paddock. He is thought to be tied down to Williams until at least 2024. 

Mick Schumacher, Mercedes’ current reserve driver, is a high-profile name waiting in the wings for a full-time comeback in case any openings emerge. 

With the driver market looking set to be relatively static for next season, we don’t expect a repeat of a shock announcement akin to Alonso’s bombshell switch to Aston Martin which rocked last summer. 

There could, however, be a lot more movement for 2025.